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近年来,我国资本市场上证券分析师研究报告的地位不断提升,尤其是金牌分析师的研究报告。证券分析师盈利预测的准确性是分析师研究报告价值的重要体现,影响证券分析师盈利预测准确性因素的研究日益成为学术界关注的热点问题。国内已有研究表明,公司信息披露透明度越高,证券分析师盈利预测的准确性就越高(李丹蒙,2007;方军雄,2007)。事实上,除了公司信息披露透明度外,影响证券分析师盈利预测准确性的还有其它诸多因素,如宏观经济、财务报告环境、分析师工作经验等。国外有不少研究表明财务报告环境中的会计准则因素对证券分析师盈利预测准确性有重大影响。国内学术界有关上市公司新会计准则以及证券分析师盈利预测方面的文献虽然不少,然而联系新会计准则和证券分析师盈利预测的相关研究倒不曾见,该研究领域尚为空白。本文在回顾国外相关文献的基础上,对国内有关新会计准则的实施与证券分析师盈利预测准确性的未来研究提供新思路,旨在抛砖引玉。
In recent years, the status of the securities analyst research report on the capital market in China continues to improve, especially the gold analyst’s research report. The accuracy of the securities analyst’s earnings forecast is an important manifestation of the analyst’s research report value. The research on the factors that affect the accuracy of the securities analyst’s earnings forecast has become a hot issue in academia. Some domestic studies show that the higher the transparency of company information disclosure, the higher the accuracy of the securities analyst’s earnings forecast (Li Danmeng, 2007; Fang Junxiong, 2007). In fact, in addition to the transparency of corporate information disclosure, there are many other factors that affect the accuracy of the securities analyst’s earnings forecast, such as the macroeconomy, the financial reporting environment, and the analyst’s working experience. Many foreign studies show that accounting standards in the financial reporting environment have a significant impact on the accuracy of securities analysts’ earnings forecasts. Although there are a lot of domestic academic literature on the new accounting standards for listed companies and the earnings forecast of securities analysts, the research on the new accounting standards and securities analyst’s earnings forecast has not been seen yet. The research area is still blank. Based on the review of relevant foreign literature, this article provides new ideas for the future research on the implementation of new accounting standards and the accuracy of securities analyst’s earnings forecast, aiming to start anew.