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目的评估2015年11月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计11月全国总报告事件数与往年一样会有所上升,但不会超过往年同期水平。11月我国内地出现人感染H7N9禽流感及其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例的可能性将增大。季节性流感等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但输入风险较前期有所下降。诺如病毒所致病毒性腹泻将进入高发季节。我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒人数将明显上升。结论预计2015年11月全国总体报告的突发公共卫生事件数将上升,但不会超过往年同期水平;需重点关注人感染禽流感疫情,也要做好中东呼吸综合征、诺如病毒腹泻和非职业性一氧化碳中毒的预防控制工作。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in November 2015 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the monitoring data of recent infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the analysis of past epidemiological characteristics, the number of reported total national events in November is expected to increase as in previous years but it will not exceed the level of the same period in previous years. In November, there will be more cases of man-infected bird flu in humans in mainland China that have been infected with H7N9 bird flu. Seasonal respiratory infections such as seasonal flu will show seasonal increases. Middle East respiratory syndrome risk into our country still exists, but the input risk decreased from the previous month. Norovirus virus-induced diarrhea will enter the high season. North China will gradually enter the coal-fired heating season, the number of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will rise significantly. Conclusions It is estimated that the number of public health emergencies in the overall national report will rise in November 2015, but will not exceed the same period in previous years. The epidemic situation of human beings infected with bird flu should be closely monitored, and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, Norovirus diarrhea and Prevention and control of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.