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为了评价结果能动态反映瓦斯爆炸的危险度和安全控制措施的控制效果,通过统合研究煤矿瓦斯爆炸的机理和特征,分析瓦斯爆炸相关因素框架层次关系构建瓦斯爆炸的现实性定量评价模型。利用概率论知识和本质易发性原理分析和构建瓦斯爆炸固有易发性评价方法,利用爆炸模型冲击波和超压相似原则分析和构建瓦斯爆炸严重度评价方法,依据控制因素的功能划分类别以及下一级子因素,并通过映射危险分级的方法实现评价指标的定量化,利用百万吨死亡率指标换算煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险度的可接受范围,从而建立一套完整的定量评价方法。通过对案例分析和跟踪调查,该评价模型和方法是可行的和适用的,不论是进行瓦斯爆炸定量评价的研究还是利用该方法对瓦斯爆炸进行评价都具有很大使用价值。
In order to evaluate the result, the risk of gas explosion can be dynamically reflected and the control effect of safety control measures can be reflected dynamically. The mechanism and characteristics of gas explosion in coal mine can be studied synthetically to analyze the real-time quantitative evaluation model of gas explosion. Based on the knowledge of probability theory and the principle of inherent vulnerability, the assessment method of inherent vulnerability to gas explosion is analyzed and constructed. The blasting severity and overpressure similarity principle are used to analyze and construct the assessment method of gas explosion severity. Level sub-factors, and quantified the evaluation index by mapping the hazard classification, and used the indicator of million tons of fatality to convert the acceptable range of gas explosion risk of coal mine to establish a complete quantitative evaluation method. Through the case analysis and follow-up investigation, the evaluation model and method are feasible and applicable. It is of great value both in the quantitative evaluation of gas explosion and in the evaluation of gas explosion using this method.