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油气勘探的地质风险评价历来就备受油气地质专家和管理层的高度重视,它对降低勘探成本,提高勘探成功率具有重大意义。基于这一出发点,参考国外的经验,依照风险树的分析思想,在充分挖掘了油气勘探地质风险因素的基础上,凝练出了5类23项风险因子,引出了区带—远景圈闭组合风险评价方法。该方法首先确定区带内远景圈闭的平均成功概率,然后赋予单个远景圈闭相对适中的成功概率,计算出整个远景圈闭的平均成功概率大小,最后确定其圈闭的风险大小。这样的研究思路和方法把单个远景圈闭成功概率与区域概率水平有机联系起来,改变了过去一步完成远景圈闭的风险评估的思想,充分考虑了区域评价标准与历史经验,提高了油气勘探地质风险的评价水平和质量,保障了勘探决策的科学性和准确性。通过在济阳坳陷古生界潜山凸起风险评价的应用,得出A带远景圈闭平均成功概率为0.8,这与客观实际吻合良好,说明区带—远景圈闭组合的油气勘探风险评价方法较为客观和科学。
Geological risk assessment of oil and gas exploration has always been the oil and gas geologists and management attach great importance to it, to reduce exploration costs, improve the success rate of exploration of great significance. Based on this starting point and referring to the experience of other countries and based on the analysis of the risk tree, based on the excavation of the geological risk factors of oil and gas exploration, five risk factors of 23 categories were summarized and the risk of zone-prospect trap combination Evaluation method. The method first determines the average probability of success of the prospective traps in the zone, and then gives the probability of success of a single long-term trap with a relatively modest success rate. The average probability of success of the entire long-term trap is calculated, and the risk of trapping is finally determined. Such research ideas and methods organically link the success probability of a single long-term trap with the regional probability level, change the thought of completing the risk assessment of long-term trap in the past step, fully consider the regional evaluation criteria and historical experience, and improve the quality of oil and gas exploration geology The level and quality of risk assessment ensure the scientific and accurate exploration decision. Through the application of the risk assessment of the Paleozoic uplift in the Jiyang depression, it is concluded that the average probability of success of the A-band prospect trap is 0.8, which is in good agreement with the objective reality, indicating the risk of hydrocarbon exploration in the zone-prospect combination Evaluation method is more objective and scientific.