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文章运用灰色理论,对强夯后路基的沉降进行了预测,在灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上,建立了等时距的时变参数灰色预测模型。将模型应用于沉降预测,对采集的常吉高速具代表性沉降观测点772天沉降实测数据进行建模、分析、对比。结果表明,选取适当时间序列建立的灰色理论在预测强夯后路基沉降中具有极高精度;同时也说明强夯的加固效果明显,夯后工后沉降小,达到甚至超过了预期目标。
In this paper, the gray theory is used to predict the subgrade settlement after dynamic compaction. On the basis of the gray GM (1,1) model, the gray prediction model with time-varying time-varying parameters is established. The model is applied to the prediction of settlement, and the measured data of 772 days of settlement at the representative settlement observation station of Changji Expressway are modeled, analyzed and compared. The results show that the gray theory established by the appropriate time series has a very high accuracy in predicting subsidence of roadbed after dynamic compaction. It also shows that the consolidation effect of dynamic compaction is obvious, and the settlement after the compaction is small, reaching or even exceeding the expected target.