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国际政治局势动荡以及原油价格冲击100美元/桶的助推下,COMEX黄金从1月5日的612美元/盎司一路上涨至最高点926.9美元/盎司。世界经济增长相时强劲,各经济体分化加剧。美国受次级抵押贷款的爆发,导致其经济增长放缓,美元贬值等现象,造成国际游资转向新兴市场。而与此同时,新兴市场将面临新一轮的通货膨胀预期,支持了黄金牛市。全球金融形势下行风险增加,影响到金融信用发展。在未来金融风险或将加剧的情况下,黄金作为除纸币外最好的一种货币形式,其金融属性将被市场愈加重视,黄金投资需求日趋旺盛。由于高杠杆产品的投资风险逐渐扩大,基金会提高其在收益稳定性产品上投资组合中的比例,而黄金将成为首选。我们认为黄金牛市将在2008年继续,但不会同2007年8月底至11月那样疯狂上涨,而是震荡上行。
International turmoil in political instability and crude oil prices hit 100 US dollars / barrel boost, COMEX gold from January 5 612 US dollars / ounce all the way up to the highest point of 926.9 US dollars / ounce. The world economy is growing at a strong phase and the economies are becoming more differentiated. The outbreak of subprime mortgages in the United States led to the slowdown of its economic growth and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, resulting in the shift of international hot money to emerging markets. In the meantime, emerging markets will face a new round of inflation expectations in support of the gold bull market. The downside risks to the global financial situation have affected the development of financial credit. In the future financial risk or will aggravate circumstances, as the best currency except paper currency, the financial attributes of the market will pay more attention to the growing investment in gold demand. With the risk of investment in highly leveraged products expanding and the foundation raising its share of portfolio in yield-stable products, gold will be the first choice. We think the gold bull market will continue in 2008, but will not go up as wildly as it was from the end of August to the end of November 2007 but will instead go up in shock.