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目的 分析煤矿工人尘肺发病特征 ,为有效防治尘肺提供科学依据。方法 运用历史研究方法和灰色系统预测法对某煤矿企业尘肺发病特征进行分析 ,并预测其发病趋势。结果 (1)Ⅰ期尘肺平均发病工龄和发病年龄分别为 19 9年和 5 1 4岁 ,且随年代的推移而呈明显延长趋势。 (2 )近 4 0年间 ,尘肺Ⅰ期→Ⅱ期、Ⅱ期→Ⅲ期的晋期率分别为 13 6 %和 11 2 % ;晋期时间分别为 8 3年和 8 1年 ;随着时间后移 ,晋期率逐步下降 ,晋期时间明显延长。 (3)尘肺肺结核合并率为 12 5 % ,且随着尘肺期别的递增而上升 ;死亡尘肺病例中肺结核合并率明显高于现患病例 (P <0 0 1)。 (4 )尘肺患者的死因构成顺序是 :尘肺 (2 0 0 % )、肺结核(18 3% )、慢性肺源性心脏病 (17 9% )、肺癌 (9 0 % )等。 (5 )预计 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 2 0年间每年约新增尘肺 2 8例 ,到2 0 2 0年该企业累计尘肺将达到 2 85 4例 ,年平均增减速度为 - 1 7%。结论 该煤矿企业尘肺发病呈下降趋势 ,但尘肺及其并发症的防治任务仍很艰巨。
Objective To analyze the characteristics of pneumoconiosis in coal miners and provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and treatment of pneumoconiosis. Methods The historical research methods and gray system prediction were used to analyze the incidence of pneumoconiosis in a coal mine enterprise and predict the trend of its occurrence. Results (1) The average length of service and the age at onset of stage Ⅰ pneumoconiosis were 19 9 and 51 4 years, respectively, and were significantly prolonged with the passage of time. (2) In the recent 40 years, the rates of pneumoconiosis in stage Ⅰ → stage Ⅱ, stage Ⅱ → stage Ⅲ were 136% and 112%, respectively; the promotion periods were 83 years and 81 years respectively; with the increase of time After the shift, the Jin rate gradually decreased, the Jin time was significantly extended. (3) The combined rate of pneumoconiosis and pulmonary tuberculosis was 125%, which increased with the increasing number of pneumoconiosis stages. The incidence of tuberculosis in death pneumoconiosis cases was significantly higher than that of the existing cases (P <0.01). (4) The order of death causes of pneumoconiosis patients was pneumoconiosis (200%), tuberculosis (18.3%), chronic cor pulmonale (17.9%) and lung cancer (90%). (5) It is expected that there will be about 28 new cases of pneumoconiosis annually between 2001 and 2020, and 2 854 cases of pneumoconiosis will be accumulated by this year, with an average annual growth rate of -1.7% . Conclusion The incidence of pneumoconiosis in this mine is on the decline. However, the prevention and control of pneumoconiosis and its complications is still arduous.