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今年初我旅美三月,碰到美国文化界的一些朋友,不论是初交还是旧识,谈起美国思想界的动态,无不以《第三次浪潮》一书相告,有的还特别热心,拿出作者的签名本借我一阅。《第三次浪潮》的作者阿尔温·托夫勒(Alvin Toffler),是个记者出身的社会学家,曾任《幸福》杂志副主编,先后在康奈尔大学、罗塞尔·赛奇基金会和新社会研究学院讲过学。前几年他写了一本《未来的震荡》,论述人类社会未来的发展,引起了美国思想界的轰动。一九八○年,托夫勒又出版了《第三次浪潮》,不仅进一步论述了未来的发展,而且从历史的角度来论证他的观点。这两本书出版后,畅销一时,成为人们谈论的题目,影响可谓大矣。托夫勒从生产力的角度出发,认为人类社会正在进入一个崭新的时期。这个新时期,他名之曰“第三次浪潮文明”。根据他的分期,人类迄今已经历了两次浪潮文明,一次是“农业革命”,即人类从原始野蛮的渔猎时代,进入以农业为基础的社会;二次是“工业革命”。这两次变革的浪潮,都是以前人所不可想象的生活方式取代了原来的生活方式,湮没了以前的文化或文明。第一次变革的浪潮历时几千年,第二次化了三百年,目前这第三次很有可能只要几十年就能完成。(“浪潮”的借喻,取自美国西部开发时期的几次移民的“浪潮”——先是拓荒者,后是农民,最后是工商业者。) 托夫勒的理论,我们未必会全都同意,但他从生产力发展的角度,对社会的未来作了一些预测,无疑是应当加以了解的。这里摘译了书中部分内容。这一期选译的主要是托夫勒对“第二次浪潮”即工业文明所作的若干分析,下期再选译他对第三次浪潮的预测。他的预测都是针对第二次浪潮的特点而来,因此,他对工业社会所作的分析仍是值得一读的。
At the beginning of this year, when I visited the United States in March, some friends in the American cultural community came to this meeting. Whether it is the initial settlement or the old recognition, I talked about the dynamic of the American intellectual community, all of them appearing in the book “The Third Wave.” Some were even special Enthusiastic, come up with the author’s signature by my reading. Alvin Toffler, the author of The Third Wave, is a journalist-born sociologist who was Associate Editor of Happiness magazine and has worked at Cornell University, I will talk to the New Social Research Institute. A few years ago he wrote a book entitled “The Future Shock”, which discusses the future development of human society and has caused a sensation in the American intellectual community. In 1980 Toffler published The Third Wave, which not only further discusses the future development, but also argues his point of view from a historical perspective. After the publication of these two books, the best-selling moment has become a topic of discussion, which can be described as a big carry on. Toffler, from a productivity standpoint, believes that human society is entering a completely new era. In this new era, his name is “the third wave of civilization.” According to his installments, mankind has so far undergone two waves of civilization, one being the “agricultural revolution”, in which mankind entered the agriculture-based society from primitive barbaric fishing and hunting times; and the second was the “industrial revolution.” The tide of these two revolutions has replaced the original way of life with the unimaginable life style of the previous people and obliterated the previous culture or civilization. The wave of change for the first time lasted for thousands of years and for the second time took 300 years. This third time is likely to be completed in just a few decades. (“The tide” of the metaphor, taken from the “wave” of several immigrants during the western United States development period - first pioneers, then peasants, and finally businesswomen.) Toffler’s theory, we may not all agree, From the perspective of productivity development, he made some predictions about the future of society and he undoubtedly should understand it. Part of the book is extracted here. The main translation of this issue is Toffler’s analysis of the “second wave”, that is, industrial civilization. In the next issue, he translates his prediction of the third wave. His prediction came from the characteristics of the second wave, so his analysis of industrial society is still worth reading.