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通过对标准PVM模型的进一步拓展与改进,本文推导出考察贸易条件是否具有非线性HLM效应的实证方程。在此基础上对我国年度样本数据的分析结果表明,长期内价格贸易条件的改善与恶化都具有改善经常项目的作用,但贸易条件下降的短期影响具有更强的波动性。因此,HLM效应是存在的,但表现出显著的非线性特征。这与我国属于贸易条件恶化型的增长模式并不矛盾,贸易条件改善并不必然导致经常项目收支恶化,而且有助于保持其持续平稳增长。此外,实际总产出与实际汇率及其非线性项也具有很强的解释力。
Through the further expansion and improvement of the standard PVM model, this paper deduces an empirical equation to examine whether trade conditions have nonlinear HLM effects. On this basis, the analysis of China’s annual sample data shows that the improvement and deterioration of the terms of trade in the long term have the effect of improving the current account. However, the short-term impact of the declining terms of trade has a stronger volatility. Therefore, the HLM effect is present but shows significant non-linear characteristics. This is not contradictory with our country’s deteriorating growth model in terms of terms of trade. Improvement of terms of trade does not necessarily lead to a deterioration in current account receipts and payments, but helps to maintain its steady and steady growth. In addition, the actual gross output and the real exchange rate and its nonlinear terms also have strong explanatory power.