论文部分内容阅读
财富是人的劳动创造的。所有商业,都是关于人的生意。人口结构变化,对商业模式设计影响巨大。中国人口将在2021年达到峰值13.8亿,此后掉头向下,至2100年只有5.6亿人。我们当中的大多数人,后半生都将经历人口数量急剧减少的过程。这一次,不是因为战乱,而是因为人们不愿生育。其结果意味着创造财富的机会大量减少。这一景象将从2028年开始!然而此前,情况却恰恰相反,涌现出大量激增的年轻人,迈入劳动人口大军。随之而来的,可能是就业、金融及能源危机;也可能是城市化所带来的巨大发展机遇。因此我们选择在未来20年做什么,将影响此后的生意和生活,无论你在哪个行业都不例外。
Wealth is created by human labor. All business is about people’s business. The demographic changes have a huge impact on the design of business models. The population of China will peak at 1.38 billion in 2021 and thereafter turn around and down to only 560 million in 2100. Most of us, for the rest of our lives, will experience a dramatic reduction in the population. This time, not because of the war, but because people are reluctant to give birth. The result means a tremendous reduction in the chances of creating wealth. This picture will start in 2028. However, the situation has been the opposite. A large number of surge in young people have entered the workforce. This may be followed by jobs, financial and energy crises, and may be a huge growth opportunity for urbanization. So what we choose to do in the next 20 years will affect business and life thereafter, no matter which industry you are in.