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本文介绍了灰色系统理论的重要部分,灰色关联度分析的原理和方法,分析了射阳县1973—1984年蚕豆赤斑病流行系统。结果表明菌源、4月中旬雨日数、上年11月至下年1月的雨日数和4月上中旬露日数是影响蚕豆赤斑病流行势的主导因素。变异系数和方差分析证明了灰色关联度分析的结果是正确、可靠的,该结论与客观实际一致。从而否定了“菌源不是影响蚕豆赤斑病发生的主导因素,,的观点。因此,在预测蚕豆赤斑病流行趋势时,首先务必考虑上述主导因素。这种新的数学方法比其它任何方法都更简易、方便和有效。另外,本文还讨论了灰色关联度分析与相关分析结果不一致的原因,以及灰色关联度分析在其它植病流行系统分析中应用的可能性和注意点。
This paper introduces the important part of the gray system theory, the principle and method of gray relational analysis, and analyzes the epidemic system of brown spot lobelking in Sheyang County from 1973 to 1984. The results showed that the main source of the bacterial source, the number of rainy days in mid-April, the number of rainy days from November to the next January and the number of open days in April and mid-April were the main factors that affected the epidemic potential of broad bean red spot. Coefficient of variation and analysis of variance proved that the result of gray relational analysis was correct and reliable, and the conclusion was consistent with objective reality. Thus denying the view that “the bacterial source is not the dominant factor affecting the occurrence of Vicia faba.” Therefore, when predicting the trend of the Vicia faba epidemic, we must first consider the above-mentioned dominant factors.This new mathematical method than any other method Is more simple, convenient and effective.In addition, this paper also discusses the reason why the gray relational analysis is inconsistent with the correlation analysis, and the possibility and points of attention that the gray relational analysis is applied to the analysis of other phytopathogenic systems.