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1998年9月以来,中国经济出现反弹,有许多人预言中国由此将进入一个新的高速增长期,我则以为目前作此预言还太早一些。因为1999年的国际经济走势目前还难以判断,我更倾向于认为会发生大问题。自亚洲金融风暴以来,国际经济中的不稳定因素不是在减少,而是在不断增加,特别是美国经济增长中的泡沫因素进一步膨胀,并呈现出破裂的迹象。1998年三季度以来,美国的实质经济增长实际上已经停滞,之所以还维持了一定的增长率,主要是靠美联储不断降息,刺激股市和消费需求所显出的虚假繁荣。由于美国居民储蓄目前已是负数,消费需求是建立在对股市的信心和消费信贷的持续扩张上,所以一旦出现美元贬值和资本外流,股市就会缩水,消费增长和经济繁荣就会结束。
Since September 1998, the Chinese economy has rebounded. Many people have predicted that China will thus enter a new period of rapid growth. I think it is still too early to make such a prediction. Because the international economic trend in 1999 is still difficult to judge at present, I prefer to think that major problems will occur. Since the Asian financial turmoil, the instability in the international economy has not decreased, but has been steadily increasing. In particular, the bubble factor in U.S. economic growth has further expanded and shows signs of collapse. Since the third quarter of 1998, the real economic growth in the United States has actually stagnated. The reason for maintaining certain growth rates lies mainly in the false prosperity shown by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and stimulate the stock market and consumer demand. As US household savings are now negative and consumer demand is based on confidence in the stock market and the continued expansion of consumer credit, the stock market has shrunk in the event of a dollar depreciation and capital outflow, and consumption growth and economic prosperity will end.