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根据我国1981-2009年度林业投资与林业产值的数据,运用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等工具分析了林业投资与产业经济增长间的关系。结果表明,我国林业投资与产业经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,产业经济增长对林业投资存在很强的依赖性。尽管林业投资效率不高,但是林业投资的变化是引起产业经济增长的格兰杰原因。最后,根据分析结果,提出相关政策建议。
According to the data of China’s forestry investment and forestry output from 1981 to 2009, the paper uses cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between forestry investment and industrial economic growth. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between forestry investment and industrial economic growth in our country, and the industrial economic growth has a strong dependence on forestry investment. Although the efficiency of forestry investment is not high, the change of forestry investment is the Granger cause of industrial economic growth. Finally, based on the analysis results, put forward relevant policy recommendations.