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基于1978-2007年山东省地方财政收入与地区生产总值的时间序列数据,运用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,构建向量误差修正(VEC)模型,对山东省政府财力与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究。结果发现,山东省政府财力与经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系。短期来看,山东省的经济增长可促进自身和政府财力的不断增长,而政府财力的扩张除了对自身的增长有利外,对经济增长的促进效果并不显著。因此,在应对国际金融危机冲击的背景下,推进税收制度改革和优化政府公共支出无疑成为当前我国公共财政面临的两大任务。
Based on the time-series data of local fiscal revenue and GDP in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2007, covariate test and Granger causality test were used to construct a vector error correction (VEC) model to analyze the financial and economic growth of Shandong provincial government The dynamic relationship has been studied. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the financial resources and economic growth of the Shandong provincial government. In the short run, the economic growth in Shandong Province will promote the continuous growth of itself and the government financial resources. However, the expansion of government financial resources will not only have an obvious effect on economic growth, but will not contribute to its own growth. Therefore, under the background of coping with the impact of the international financial crisis, promoting the tax system reform and optimizing government public expenditure will undoubtedly become the two major tasks currently facing China’s public finance.