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在分析二战以来世界各地族群的基础上,本文评估区域自治对于内部冲突爆发的影响。通过从新视角观察正在进行中的争论,我们认为,批评者过分阐释了反对自治政策的案例。我们的证据表明,在冲突历史不占主流的地方,分权有显著的预防冲突发生的效果。但是,在冲突后的安置过程中,授予自主权仍然有助于结合中央权力分享安排。然而,就其本身而言,冲突后的自治让步可能收效甚微,而且为时已晚。为了解释内生性,我们以后殖民国家——法国殖民地的自治为工具变量,相对于英国的殖民统治,法国的殖民统治很少依赖于分权治理。这种识别策略表明,单纯的分析往往会低估分权的安抚效果。
Based on an analysis of the ethnic groups in the world since World War II, this article assesses the impact of regional autonomy on the outbreak of internal conflicts. By looking at the ongoing debate from a new perspective, we believe critics have overexposed cases of anti-self-government policies. Our evidence shows that where conflict history is not mainstream, decentralization has the obvious effect of preventing conflicts from taking place. However, granting autonomy in the post-conflict placement still helps to integrate the central power-sharing arrangements. However, for its part, post-conflict self-determination may prove ineffectual and too late. In order to explain the endogeneity, we use the autonomy of the colonial countries - the French colonies as the instrumental variables later. Compared with British colonial rule, the French colonial rule seldom relies on decentralized governance. This recognition strategy shows that simple analysis tends to underestimate the comforting effect of decentralization.