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用枚举法导出了相同并独立分布的随机变量序列的最大负游程长极限干旱历时的概率分布函数,分析了此函数的基本性质,并将其用于水文干旱的极限干旱历时的概率分布特征分析。结果显示,可将本文介绍的相同并独立分布的随机变量序列的最大负游程长的概率分布函数,作为极限干旱历时的概率分布函数,与相应结构的年径流序列在各种频率对应的流量截取后得到的水文干旱最大持续年数(极限干旱历时)序列的经验频率拟合良好。
The enumeration method is used to derive the probability distribution function of the maximum minus run length of the same and independently distributed random variable series. The basic properties of this function are analyzed and applied to the probability distribution characteristics of extreme drought duration of hydrological drought analysis. The results show that the probability distribution function of the maximum negative run length of the same and independently distributed random variable sequence introduced in this paper can be taken as the probability distribution function of the limit drought duration and intercepted with the corresponding structure of the annual runoff sequence at the corresponding flow rate The empirical frequency of the series of the maximum number of consecutive years of hydrological drought (extreme drought duration) obtained after fitting well.