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预测汇市和债市的短期走势,难度大,成功率低,很难借助基本经济因素分析方法。最近,摩根一经济学家独辟蹊径,采用风险偏好原理,对短期走势作出分析,提供了一条重要思路。本文对此作一简介。汇率变动的长期趋势可从一些基本经济因素进行预测,如两国通胀的差异、两国货币供应量的差异、两国贸易差额等。但对短期的变化或走势则很难采用基本经济因素分析法。那么,可否通过其它途径认识其变化的规律?不久
It is difficult to forecast the short-term trend of the foreign exchange market and the bond market with low success rate and the method of basic economic factor analysis. Recently, an economist Morgan unique, using the principle of risk appetite, to analyze the short-term trend, provides an important idea. This article gives an introduction. The long-term trend of changes in exchange rates can be predicted from some basic economic factors, such as the differences between the two countries in terms of inflation, the differences in the money supply between the two countries and the trade balance between the two countries. However, it is very difficult to adopt the method of basic economic factor analysis for short-term changes or trends. So, can we know the law of change by other means? Soon