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目的运用空间统计学的方法描述并探讨2013年甘肃省猩红热发病的空间分布特征。方法利用“全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统”导出2013年甘肃省各区(县)猩红热发病数据、相应区(县)人口数等数据,运用空间统计软件分析甘肃省猩红热发病的空间相关性、空间聚集性特征。结果 2013年甘肃省猩红热报告发病率存在空间自相关性(Z(I)=5.222,P=0.001);局部空间自相关分析发现区域内存在高-高关联模式的县(区)为安宁区(P=0.050)、肃北县(P=0.030)、安西县(P=0.010)和敦煌市(P=0.010)、低-低等关联模式的县(区)为武山县(P=0.040)、通渭县(P=0.010)、陇西县(P=0.020)、渭源县(P=0.030)、岷县(P=0.040)、武都区(P=0.040)、西峰区(P=0.020)、庆城县(P=0.010)和宁县(P=0.050);规则空间扫描结果显示猩红热发病最大可能聚集区为酒泉市的部分县区(RR=12.17,P=0.001)。结论 2013年甘肃省猩红热报告发病率呈非随机分布,酒泉市、嘉峪关市、金昌市、兰州市、白银市和临夏州为甘肃省猩红热发病聚集区域,是猩红热的重点防控地区。
Objective To describe and discuss the spatial distribution of scarlet fever in Gansu Province in 2013 by means of spatial statistics. Methods The epidemiological data of scarlet fever in all districts and counties of Gansu Province were used to derive the data of scarlet fever and the population of the corresponding districts and counties in 2013. The spatial statistical software was used to analyze the spatial correlation of scarlet fever in Gansu province Sexual, spatial aggregation characteristics. Results The incidence of scarlet fever in Gansu Province in 2013 showed a spatial autocorrelation (Z (I) = 5.222, P = 0.001). The local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that counties with high-high correlation patterns in the region were Anning District (P = 0.050), Subei County (P = 0.030), Anxi County (P = 0.010) and Dunhuang City (P = 0.010) and Wushan County (P = 0.040) Weixian County (P = 0.010), Longxi County (P = 0.020), Weiyuan County (P = 0.030), Minxian County (P = 0.040), Wudu District (P = , Qingcheng (P = 0.010) and Ningxian (P = 0.050). The regular spatial scanning results showed that the most likely aggregation area of scarlet fever was in some counties in Jiuquan (RR = 12.17, P = 0.001). Conclusion The incidence of scarlet fever in Gansu Province in 2013 was nonrandomly distributed. Jiuquan City, Jiayuguan City, Jinchang City, Lanzhou City, Baiyin City and Linxia Prefecture were scarlet fever gathering areas in Gansu province, which were the key prevention and control areas for scarlet fever.