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目的:刻画政府卫生支出与卫生总费用的时变关系。方法:建立状态空间模型,并利用卡尔曼滤波估计状态变量。结果:1978—2007年,卫生总费用的政府支出弹性不断提高,且1978—1997年弹性增速快于1998—2007年弹性增速。2008—2009年弹性下降,2010—2012年弹性在0.723~0.725之间徘徊。结论:进一步深化卫生体制改革,提高政府卫生支出利用效率。
Objective: To characterize the time-varying relationship between government health expenditure and total health expenditure. Methods: The state space model was established and Kalman filter was used to estimate the state variables. Results: From 1978 to 2007, the total expenditure on health increased continuously and the elasticity of growth in 1978-1997 was faster than the elasticity of growth in 1998-2007. Elasticity decreased in 2008-2009, and elasticity in 2010-2012 hovered between 0.723 and 0.725. Conclusion: To further deepen the reform of the health system and improve the utilization efficiency of government health expenditure.