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本文在永久收入假说和新古典投资理论的基础上,基于家庭、企业和地方政府行为对高房价的产出增长和经济结构失衡影响效应进行模型分析,从中发现,高房价主要通过增加财政收入和支出从而促进总产出增长,这种模式会加剧经济结构失衡。利用我国数据的实证分析验证了理论模型结论,得出高房价对消费、投资和财政收入等变量均只产生短期的微弱影响,这种短期影响表明依靠高房价来刺激经济增长是不可持续的。因此,依靠房地产业来刺激经济增长是一种不可持续的方式,短期内虽能刺激经济,从长期看却会损害经济发展质量。
Based on the permanent income hypothesis and neoclassical investment theory, based on the model analysis of household, business and local government behavior on the output growth of high housing prices and the impact of imbalanced economic structure, we find that high housing prices mainly through increased financial revenue and Expenditure thus boosting aggregate output growth will exacerbate the structural imbalances in the economy. Empirical analysis of the data in our country validates the conclusion of the theoretical model and concludes that high housing prices have only short-term weak effects on variables such as consumption, investment and fiscal revenue. This short-term impact indicates that it is unsustainable to rely on high housing prices to stimulate economic growth. Therefore, relying on the real estate industry to stimulate economic growth is an unsustainable way. In the short term, though it can stimulate the economy, it will undermine the quality of economic development in the long run.