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应用极限强度的概率分析理论，以国内某现役近海石油平台结构为工程背景，对三维大型导管架结构系统的贮备强度及安全裕度进行了系统研究。针对平台结构特征，对管节点的冲剪效应、管的局部与整体屈曲失效模式、结构失效的工程判据、系统破坏路径枚举等给予了充分讨论，构造了关于截止破坏路径枚举的工程优化准则算法，结合载荷增量方法，完善了大型导管架系统贮备强度及安全裕度的概率评估方法，并开发成相应的工程分析软件。由实际算例，对算法的合理性及可行性进行了论证分析，数值结果表明与实际结构工程的使用维护结论相符。该研究为大型导管架结构系统的安全性评估是有效及可靠的。
Based on the Probability Analysis Theory of ultimate strength and the current offshore oil platform structure in active service in China, the research on the reserve strength and safety margin of the three-dimensional large-scale jacket riser system is carried out systematically. For the structural features of the platform, the effect of the punching shear on the pipe joints, the partial and overall buckling failure mode of the pipe, the engineering criterion of the structural failure, and the enumeration of the system destructive path, etc., the project about enumerating the destruction path is constructed The optimization criterion algorithm, combined with the method of load increment, improves the probabilistic assessment method of reserve strength and safety margin of large jacket system and develops it into corresponding engineering analysis software. The actual example is used to demonstrate the rationality and feasibility of the algorithm. The numerical results show that the algorithm is in good agreement with the actual structural engineering. The study is effective and reliable for the safety assessment of large jacket systems.