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利用树木年轮气候学方法,根据马尾松生长对气候变量具非线性响应,尝试重建江苏暖湿地区过去116年(1874~1990)的年平均气温和降水量。温度的重建效果优于降水量,实测值与重建值两者的缩减误差(RE)分别为0.12和0.10,两者的平均偏差百分率分别为2.3%和20%。绝大部分重建结果可从观测记录和历史文献中得到验证,但在温度较高或降水量较多的若干年份,实测值与重建值有较大偏差。
According to the tree-ring climatology method, according to the non-linear response of clonal growth to climatic variables, attempts have been made to rebuild the annual average temperature and precipitation over the past 116 years (1874-1990) in the warm and wet areas of Jiangsu Province. The reconstruction effect of temperature is better than that of precipitation, and the reduction error (RE) between the measured value and the reconstructed value is 0.12 and 0.10 respectively, with the average deviation percentage of 2.3% and 20% respectively. Most of the reconstruction results can be verified from observation records and historical documents. However, in some years with high temperature or precipitation, there is a big deviation between measured values and reconstructed values.