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目的探讨Markov模型预测合肥市疟疾发病率的可行性,为全市的疟疾防治工作提供科学依据。方法应用Excel软件对合肥市1990～2010年疟疾发病率建立Markov模型,预测合肥市2011～2012年的疟疾发病率。结果利用建成的Markov模型预测合肥市2011～2012年疟疾发病率均在1/10万～3.5/10万之间,而2011年和2012年实际发病率分别为0.13/10万和0/10万,预测结果与实际情况不符。结论本次模拟的Markov模型不适合预测合肥市疟疾的发病情况。
Objective To investigate the feasibility of Markov model in predicting the incidence of malaria in Hefei and to provide a scientific basis for malaria control in the city. Methods The Excel software was used to establish the Markov model of malaria incidence in Hefei from 1990 to 2010 and predict the incidence of malaria in Hefei from 2011 to 2012. Results The Markov model was used to predict the incidence of malaria in Hefei from 1 in 10,000 to 3.5 / 100,000 in 2011 ~ 2012, while the actual incidence rates in 2011 and 2012 were 0.13 / 100,000 and 0 / 100,000 respectively The forecast result does not match the actual situation. Conclusion The Markov model of this simulation is not suitable for predicting the incidence of malaria in Hefei.