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我们重做莱因哈特和罗格夫在2010年的研究发现编码错误(coding errors)、选择性排除可得数据(selective exclusion of available data)、对加总统计量进行非常规赋权(unconventional weighting of summary statistics),导致了他们在描绘20个发达经济体“二战”后公共债务与GDP增长之间关系时犯了严重错误。我们的发现是:当正确计算的时候,公共债务与GDP之比大于90%的国家的平均GDP增长率实际是2.2%,而不是莱因哈特和罗格夫所说的-0.1%。也即与莱因哈特和罗格夫相反,与公共债务与GDP之比较低的情况相比,公共债务与GDP之比大于90%时,平均GDP的增长并不会明显下降。我们还展示了公共债务与GDP增长之间的关系怎样随时期和国家的不同而发生明显的变化。总的说来,我们重审的证据与莱因哈特和罗格夫所宣称的公共债务占GDP的比重大于90%时会一贯降低GDP的增长这一重要的典型事实是相矛盾的。
Our redoing of Reinhart and Rogoff’s 2010 study found that coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, unconventional weighting of summary statistics, resulting in a serious error in depicting the relationship between public debt and GDP growth in 20 developed economies after World War II. Our finding is that when correctly calculated, the average GDP growth for countries with public debt to GDP greater than 90% is actually 2.2% instead of -0.1% as Reinhardt and Rogoff called. In contrast to Reinhart and Rogoff, on the other hand, when the ratio of public debt to GDP is greater than 90%, the average GDP growth does not decrease significantly as compared with the low public debt and GDP ratio. We also show how the relationship between public debt and GDP growth has changed significantly over time and by country. On the whole, the evidence we reexamined contradicts with the important and typical fact that Reinhardt and Rogoff have claimed that public debt will consistently reduce GDP growth when the ratio of GDP to GDP is greater than 90%.