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在增长核算框架下,财税、金融、土地、户籍、行政、国企、对外开放等重点领域改革通过要素投入和TFP两条渠道,效率改善、技术提升和要素投入增加等三种效应促进经济增长。改革开放以来,以上领域改革对经济增长作出了较大贡献,并呈现出改革对经济增长的贡献大于技术进步,改革所带来的效率提升效应大于要素增加效应,改革对资本积累的影响大于对劳动投入的影响等特征。对“十三五”时期的预测表明,相对于没有落实十八届三中全会关于重点领域改革部署、经济增长只能保持6.36%的基准情景而言,全面和部分落实重点领域改革部署,GDP分别有望保持7.39%和6.88%的年均增速。分领域看,推进财税体制改革红利最大,土地、户籍和国企改革红利次之,对外开放、金融和行政体制改革红利相对较小。重点领域改革还能通过扩大有效需求,使经济实际增长水平接近潜在增长水平。“十三五”时期,应合理安排改革时序,加快消除改革制约经济增长的症结,发挥好不同领域改革的功能,为经济持续稳定增长注入持久动力。
Under the framework of growth accounting, the reform in key areas such as finance, taxation, finance, land, household registration, administration, state-owned enterprises and opening to the outside world will promote economic growth through three kinds of effects: input of factors and two channels of TFP, efficiency improvement, technology upgrading and increase of input of factors. Since the reform and opening up, the reform in these areas has made a great contribution to economic growth, and shows that the contribution of the reform to economic growth is greater than that of technological progress. The efficiency increase effect brought by the reform is greater than the factor increase effect. The reform has a greater impact on capital accumulation than the reform The impact of labor input and other characteristics. The forecast for the “13th Five-Year Plan” period shows that in the light of the failure to implement the benchmark scenario that the economic growth can only be maintained at 6.36% in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the overall and partial implementation of the reform plan in key areas , GDP, respectively, are expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.39% and 6.88%. In terms of sub-sectors, the dividend reform in the fiscal and taxation system is the largest, followed by the dividends on land, household registration and state-owned enterprise reform. The dividend for the reform of the financial and administrative systems is relatively small. The reform in key areas can also bring the actual level of economic growth close to the potential growth by expanding effective demand. In the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, the timing of reform should be rationally arranged, the crux of the economic growth restrained by the reform should be expeditiously eliminated, the functions of reform in various fields should be given full play, and a lasting driving force should be injected into the sustained and steady economic growth.