论文部分内容阅读
今后一两年内,西方经济是否爆发“大萧条”,主要取决于三个因素的变化:一是利率会不会继续降低;二是世界债务能不能妥善处理;三是贸易保护主义能不能适当控制。1983年是西方经济何去何从的关键一年。从目前情况看,西方国家有可能把危机对付过去,不致爆发“大萧条”。但即使如此,也很难出现较大的经济高涨,不过是把目前的“滯胀”的局面拖得更长而已。
Whether the outbreak of the “Great Depression” in the western economy in the coming one or two years depends mainly on changes in three factors: First, will interest rates continue to decline; second, whether world debt can be properly handled; and third, whether trade protectionism can be properly controlled . 1983 is the crucial year for the western economy going. Judging from the current situation, the western countries are likely to deal with the crisis in the past, will not erupt “the Great Depression.” But even so, it is hard for the economy to have a bigger rise, but it will drag the current “stagflation” situation to an even longer extent.