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大部分预测家们预计,就整个经济而言,今年的产品数量和劳务方面将开始下降——第一季度大约下降0.6％,春季开始缓慢复苏,在第三和第四季度,恢复才将加快,但即使在年底,它的增长率也不会超过4％。这种预测能否实现,大部分将取决于联邦储备委员会能否控制住货币供应而不使国家信用机构崩溃。随着今年时间的流逝,里根政府的政策(允诺削减政府开支,减轻对企业的干预)和能力,将越来越变得重要。《商业周刊》对1981年美国工业的展望表明,经济模式是大不相同的。石油和信息处理行业可望有所增长,其利润也将相当可观,甚至更为惊人;汽车行业则面临一个严峻的萧条年;而钢铁行业因受汽车减产和进口的影响,只能期望达到收支勉强平衡的水平而已;食品加工行业将大大低于平均水平,除非12月份农产品价格下跌,标志着开始了趋势的真正的改变但看来未必可能。机器、纸张、化学品行业虽然都存在问题,但都可望今年能相当顺利渡过。
Most forecasters expect the number of products and services to start to decline this year in terms of the economy as a whole - a drop of about 0.6% in the first quarter, a slow recovery in the spring and a faster recovery in the third and fourth quarters , But even at the end of the year, its growth rate will not exceed 4%. Much of this predictability will be realized depending on whether the Federal Reserve will control the money supply without the collapse of state credit agencies. As the year progresses, the Reagan administration’s policies (promises to cut government spending and reduce corporate intervention) and capabilities will become more and more important. Business Week’s outlook for U.S. industry in 1981 shows that the economic model is quite different. The oil and information processing industries are expected to increase, and their profits will also be considerable and even more alarming. The auto industry is facing a severe recession. However, the steel industry can only expect to achieve revenue due to the impact of automobile production cuts and imports Barely balanced level; the food processing industry will be well below average, unless the fall in farm prices in December marks the beginning of a real change in the trend but that may not seem likely. Although there are problems with the machinery, paper and chemicals industries, they are all expected to pass quite smoothly this year.