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目的应用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测我国新生儿死亡率的变化趋势,为新生儿的预防保健工作提供科学依据。方法利用我国2004-2013年新生儿死亡率资料建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,并对模型做精度评价,利用模型进行外推预测。结^果新生儿死亡率的预测模型为Y(t)=-151.012 5e~(0.090 9(1-t))+166.412 5,模型拟合精度为优,同时利用模型外推预测了今后3年我国的新生儿死亡率为5.79‰、5.28‰和4.83‰。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型可用于我国新生儿死亡率的趋势预测,我国新生儿死亡率呈下降趋势。
Objective To predict the change trend of neonatal mortality in China by using gray GM (1,1) model, and provide a scientific basis for prevention and care of neonates. Methods The gray GM (1,1) model was established based on the neonatal mortality data from 2004 to 2013 in our country. The accuracy of the model was evaluated and the model was used to extrapolate it. Results The prediction model of neonatal mortality was Y (t) = - 151.012 5e ~ (0.090 9 (1-t)) + 166.412 5. The model fitting accuracy was excellent and the model extrapolation predicted the next three years The neonatal mortality rate in China is 5.79 ‰, 5.28 ‰ and 4.83 ‰. Conclusion Gray GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the trend of neonatal mortality in China. The neonatal mortality rate in China shows a decreasing trend.