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基于鄱阳湖流域1956~2012年6个水文站的逐日流量资料,利用变差系数、年际极值比、Kendall秩次相关检验、距平百分率、Markov过程多种分析方法,分析了鄱阳湖流域的径流年际及丰枯变化规律。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域的流量年际变化相对稳定,年径流量呈不显著的增加趋势;出现连枯水年的概率高于连丰水年概率;在丰枯转移的Markov过程中,平水年的自转移概率最大,重现期最短;丰水年与枯水年互转的概率最大,且出现枯水和偏枯水的概率大于出现丰水和偏丰水的概率;无论年径流处于何种初始状态,其向平水年转移的概率最大。
Based on the daily flow data of six hydrological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1956 to 2012, using the variation coefficient, interannual extreme value ratio, Kendall rank correlation test, anomaly percentage and Markov process analysis, Runoff interannual and abundance changes. The results showed that the interannual variation of the flow in Poyang Lake Basin was relatively stable and the annual runoff showed an insignificant increase. The probability of even dry years was higher than that of Lianfeng. In Markov process, The highest probability of self-transition and the shortest reappearance period; the probability of mutual transfer between wet years and dry years is the largest, and the probability of occurrence of dry and under-dry water is greater than the probability of occurrence of abundant and over-abundance of water; The initial state, the maximum probability of its transfer to the flat water year.