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中国改革开放以来取得的经济增长成就举世瞩目,同时随着步入上中等收入国家行列,中国今后经济增长的态势也成为学界研究的焦点,是保持此前一贯的高速增长,还是转为低速但可持续的增长,抑或是陷入模仿陷阱,都取决于中国今后一段时期经济增长的动力来源及结构。本文首先从中国近年来经济增长的典型化事实出发,探究其高速增长背后的动力机制,然后展望这些动力是否可持续,进而讨论中国进入新时期后的经济增长趋势,在此基础上,得出研究结论与政策主张。
Since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic growth. With the entry into the ranks of the middle-income countries, the trend of China’s economic growth has also become the focus of academic research, whether it is maintaining its previous high-speed growth or turning into a low-speed economy Continued growth, or fall into the trap of imitation, depends on the source and structure of China’s economic growth in the coming period. Based on the typical facts of economic growth in recent years in China, this paper explores the motivation mechanism behind its rapid growth and then forecasts whether these motives are sustainable or not, and then discusses the trend of economic growth after China entered a new era. Based on this, Research conclusions and policy ideas.