谨防中国经济陷入“二次衰退”

• 作 者: 刘宪法
• 机 构: 综合开发研究院(中国·深圳),
• 出 处: 开放导报
• 发表日期: 2009年02期
• 关键词: 经济周期 二次紧缩 产能调整

目前中国经济正在经历存货调整阶段,并开始了价格调整,但是实质性的产能调整尚未展开。在产能调整不充分的条件下,整体经济很难重回增长向上的运行轨道;在短期内,政府刺激经济的宏观调控政策虽然是有效的,因为它能减缓经济的深度下滑,但并不能拉动经济的回升。拉动经济回升的主要力量是市场。如果整体经济的运行过度依赖于政府的刺激经济的宏观调控政策,中国经济将面临“二次紧缩”的风险。

At present, China’s economy is experiencing an inventory adjustment phase and has begun price adjustments. However, substantial capacity adjustment has not yet started. Under the conditions of insufficient production capacity adjustment, the overall economy will hardly regain the upward track of growth. In the short term, the government’s macro-control policy to stimulate the economy is effective because it can slow the deep economic decline but it can not boost Economic recovery. The main force driving economic recovery is the market. If the overall economy runs excessively depending on the government’s macro-control policies to stimulate the economy, China’s economy will face the risk of a “secondary tightening”.