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分析粮食主产区化肥施用量变动特征及其驱动因素,有助于在确保粮食等主要农产品有效供给的基础上实现化肥减量目标。基于13个粮食主产省份2005-2015年的数据,采用因素分解法对粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素进行了分解。结果表明,化肥施用强度提高是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主因,其次是播种面积增加,种植结构调整的贡献较小。但2010年以来,化肥施用强度提高的贡献在下降,种植结构调整的贡献在上升。分作物看,粮食作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素,其次是园艺作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加,传统经济作物的化肥施用量增长很少。分区域看,北方主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素是施用强度提高,其次是播种面积增加;南方主产区播种面积增加和施用强度提高的累计贡献量大致相当。由此提出,促进粮食主产区化肥减量的重点是提高化肥利用效率,同时积极推广节肥型品种,促进园艺作物有机肥替代化肥。
Analyzing the characteristics and driving forces of chemical fertilizer application rates in main grain-producing areas will help to achieve the goal of reducing chemical fertilizers on the basis of ensuring the effective supply of grain and other major agricultural products. Based on the data from 2005 to 2015 in 13 major grain producing provinces, factor decomposition was used to decompose the drivers of the increase of chemical fertilizer use in the main grain-producing areas. The results showed that the increase of chemical fertilizer application was the main reason for the increase of chemical fertilizer application rates in the main grain producing areas, followed by the increase of sown area and less contribution of adjustment of planting structure. However, since 2010, the contribution of improved fertilizer application intensity has been declining, and the contribution of planting structure adjustment has been on the rise. According to the crops, the increase of the application intensity of grain crops and the increase of sown area are the main driving factors for the increase of chemical fertilizer application rates in the main grain-producing areas. The second is the increase of horticultural crop application intensity and sown area, with little increase of chemical fertilizer application of traditional economic crops. In the subregion, the main driving factors for the increase of chemical fertilizer application rates in the main producing areas in the north are the application intensities, followed by the increase of sown areas. The cumulative contribution of increased sowing areas and application intensities in the main producing areas in the south is roughly the same. Therefore, the key point of promoting chemical fertilizer reduction in the main grain-producing areas is to improve the efficiency of chemical fertilizer use, at the same time, actively promote the fertilizer-saving varieties and promote the replacement of organic fertilizer with horticultural crops.