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本文利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,结合乌鲁木齐河出山口英雄桥水文站多年序列实测径流资料,分析乌鲁木齐河年径流量和四季径流量的变化趋势特征及突变发生的情况。结果表明,在1960~2009年,乌鲁木齐河年径流量呈上升趋势,春季和冬季径流量的上升趋势显著,夏季和秋季径流量的上升趋势不显著;在20世纪90年代前年径流量的上升趋势不显著,1993年后有明显的上升趋势,并且在1970、1972、1978和1981年发生突变。
In this paper, Mann-Kendall trend test method is used to analyze the annual runoff data of the Yingxiongqiao Hydrological Station at the Urumqi River outlet and to analyze the characteristics of the annual runoff and the four-season runoff and the occurrence of the mutation in the Urumqi River. The results showed that annual runoff of Urumqi River increased from 1960 to 2009, and the upward trend of runoff in spring and winter was significant. The upward trend of runoff in summer and autumn was not significant. In the 1990s, the runoff increased Not significant, there is a clear upward trend after 1993, and the mutations occurred in 1970, 1972, 1978 and 1981.