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基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。
Based on the global supply and demand of rare earth resources and the trend of reduction of rare earth resources in China, we use the system dynamics model to predict the reserves of rare earth resources in China in the next 17 years. The data of production and consumption from 2000 to 2013 were selected. Based on the quantitative simulation of the fluctuation coefficient of supply and demand of rare earth in China, two schemes of 0% and 20% fluctuation of supply and demand of rare earth resources were designed respectively. Reserve amount, cumulative reserve amount and reserve absolute value. The range of scenario 1 is (-0%, +0%). The simulation predicts that the cumulative reserves of rare earth in the next 17 years will be 720551t, that is, the strategic reserve size will reach 720551t. Under this scenario, no matter how fluctuations in supply and demand occur, the state will reserve (-20%, + 20%). It is predicted that the strategic reserve scale in the next 17 years will be 461,331t. The state only needs to adjust the supply and demand of the market to reduce the price Fluctuation. This paper simulates the reserve quantity from the fluctuation coefficient of the difference between supply and demand. The purpose is to provide a reference for the relevant departments of the state in the decision-making of rare earth reserves. According to the economic conditions of our country, supply and demand situation and the development of rare earth industry, reserve.