论文部分内容阅读
基于面板向量自回归(panel vector auto-regression,PVAR)模型分析方法,从林业资金投入、人员投入、造林面积和涉林产值四个指标变量出发,动态分析了我国9个国有林区2003~2012年涉林产业数据。研究表明,我国国有林区是一个具有短期自适应性的动态系统。四个指标变量中,林业资金投入和造林面积的相互影响不明显,这说明现有林业金融支持对林区发展的贡献不显著。为了促进国有林区经济发展、增强国有林区金融支持效果,从拓展资金来源渠道和创新金融产品服务等角度提出我国国有林区生态系统金融支持体系的优化建议。
Based on panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) model analysis, this paper analyzes four index variables of forestry capital input, personnel input, afforestation area and forestry-related output value, and dynamically analyzes nine state-owned forest areas in China from 2003 to 2012 Year involved forest industry data. Research shows that China’s state-owned forest region is a dynamic system with short-term adaptability. Among the four index variables, the mutual influence of forestry capital input and afforestation area is not obvious, which shows that the contribution of forestry financial support to forest development is not significant. In order to promote the economic development of the state-owned forest area and enhance the financial support effect of the state-owned forest area, the paper suggests some suggestions on how to optimize the financial support system of the ecosystem in the state-owned forest area from the perspective of expanding the sources of funds and innovating the financial products and services.