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我们认为,在资金推动下的“市场历史成本中枢”正在趋向失效,这意味着基于历史经验的对A 股市场“顶”与“底”的判断已经失去根基。从“资金成本中枢”向“价值中枢”的转变,将使下阶段市场面临较大的“重置波动”。本轮行政干预下的宏观经济减速导致周期性行业的赢利预期下降;而加息很可能导致企业的资本成本上升。两者共同作用结果,就是导致股票整体估值水平的大幅度下降。在有关“中国增长的故事”开始进入短暂休息之后,一个基于全球市场的增长故事正在吸引市场新的注意力。
In our opinion, the “market historical cost hub” driven by funding is going to fail. This means that judgments based on historical experience of “top” and “bottom” of the A-share market have lost their foundation. The shift from “capital cost hub” to “value hub” will expose the next phase of the market to greater “reset volatility.” The macroeconomic slowdown under the current round of administrative intervention has led to a drop in the expected earnings of the cyclical industry, which is likely to lead to higher capital costs. The combined effect of the two results in a sharp drop in the overall valuation of the stock. A story based on growth in the global market is attracting new attention in the market after a brief break with “The Story of China’s Growth.”