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本文基于1996Q1-2012Q4的宏观经济指标利用动态因子马尔可夫机制转换(DFMs)模型对我国经济周期进行测定,以期构建成符合我国国情的经济周期测定体系和经济周期年表,最终目标则是科学有效、及时制定宏观调控政策,使我国经济增长稳定可控。实证结果表明:我国经济周期的非对称性和协动性非常显著,并且经济周期的转折点具有较强的技术先进性。因此,利用状态概率对经济周期波动进行划分,可以将各期经济扩张或紧缩概率值的大小体现出来,满足对周期转折点判断的科学性、透明性、可复制性、可修正性及实时性要求。
Based on the macroeconomic indicators from 1996Q1 to 2012Q4, this paper uses the Dynamic Factor Markov Regime (DFMs) model to measure China’s economic cycle, with a view to building an economic cycle measurement system and economic cycle chronology that meets China’s national conditions. The ultimate goal is science Effectively and promptly formulate macro-control policies so that our economic growth will be stable and controllable. The empirical results show that: the asymmetry and co-movement of China’s economic cycle is very significant, and the turning point of the economic cycle has a strong technological advance. Therefore, using the state probability to divide the economic cycle fluctuation, the size of the economic expansion or contraction probability value in each phase can be reflected to meet the requirements of science, transparency, reproducibility, correctability and real-time of judgment of the turning point of the cycle .