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本篇题目看上去似乎有点脱离实际,因为伊拉克已有占世界第二位的石油储量摆在那里。但是为了说明石油对伊拉克以及对国际社会的意义,也不妨换个视角作些推论。这种“换位思考”有时可以帮助我们更清晰地认识事物的本质。如果伊拉克没有石油,伊拉克国内的经济会怎样?海湾的地缘政治又会怎样?如果伊拉克没有石油,其农业仍然是经济的支柱,工业发展因资金不足而裹足不前。国际收支方面因缺少创汇产品而会感到十分拮据,只有向海湾其他国家派出大量劳动力才能换回一些“服务收入”。当然,如果领导人重视,劳动密集型的制造业,以及以巴比伦王国等古迹为卖点的旅游业也会得到一些发展。
The title of this article may seem a little out of touch with Iraq as it has the second largest oil reserves in the world. However, to illustrate the significance of oil to Iraq and to the international community, we might as well make some inferences from a different perspective. This “empathy ” can sometimes help us to understand the essence of things more clearly. If there is no oil in Iraq, what will happen to the domestic economy in Iraq and what will happen to the geopolitics in the Gulf? If Iraq does not have oil, its agriculture will remain the pillar of the economy and industrial development will not be able to afford enough funds. Because of the lack of foreign exchange products in the balance of payments, it will feel very constrained. Only by sending a large amount of labor force to other Gulf countries will it be possible to exchange some “service income”. Of course, there will also be some developments in the tourism industry if labor-intensive manufacturing, as well as monuments such as the Kingdom of Babylon, are valued by leaders.