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说上海是中国的“龙头”,这绝非是地理学意义上的比喻。超越了地理学意义的“龙头”,是上海在中国社会经济体系中的形象特征,它潜含着一种动力结构、一种产业关联状态。我们对中国经济增长进入转型阶段的判定,也多少基于这种动力结构和关联状态。 一、上海经济增长县前进入转型期 在1991年至今的新一轮增长波动中,上海比全国提前半年进入加速回升期。在1992年中期达到峰值后,增长曲线基本上以14.9％的基准平移,达一年半之久,其稳定性超过历史上任何时期。受宏观经济环境和中央宏观调控政策的影响,全国经济增长速度目1993年7月开始回落,但上海的增长水平仍比较稳定,落差小。有人据此判断,上海抵御经济周期的能力增强了,已经走出了超常规经济彼动。我们基本上同意这一判断,但更注重这一表面事实所涵盖的深层机理。
To say that Shanghai is China’s “leader” is by no means a geography metaphor. The “leader” that goes beyond the meaning of geography is the image of Shanghai in China’s social and economic system. It implies a dynamic structure and an industry-related status. Our determination of whether China’s economic growth has entered a transitional phase depends somewhat on this dynamic structure and the state of its linkage. First, the economic growth in Shanghai before the county into the transition period From 1991 to the present a new round of growth fluctuations, Shanghai than the country six months ahead of the accelerated recovery period. After reaching a peak in mid-1992, the growth curve basically shifted by 14.9% for a year and a half and its stability exceeded that of any period in history. Affected by the macroeconomic environment and the macroeconomic control policies of the central government, the national economic growth rate began to drop in July 1993, but Shanghai’s growth remained relatively stable with a small drop. According to this, some people judge that Shanghai’s ability to withstand the economic cycle has been enhanced and that it has stepped out of the unconventional economy. We basically agree with this judgment, but pay more attention to the deeper mechanisms covered by this superficial fact.