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目的:预测海宁市乙型肝炎的发病率。方法:采用海宁市2005-2011年乙型肝炎发病资料,建立GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果:预测模型为^X(0)(k+1)=443.4131e-0.186 3,经拟合优度检验,后验差C值为0.28,P值为1.00,模型预测精度等级为1级。结论:模型精度检验结果表明模型的精度等级为一级,是一个较好的模型,可以比较精确地反映海宁市乙肝的发展趋势。预测显示,海宁市乙肝的发病率呈下降趋势。
Objective: To predict the incidence of hepatitis B in Haining City. Methods: The incidence of hepatitis B in Haining city from 2005 to 2011 was used to establish GM (1,1) model for prediction. Results: The prediction model was ^ X (0) (k + 1) = 443.4131e-0.186. 3. After goodness of fit test, the posterior difference C value was 0.28 and the P value was 1.00. The prediction accuracy of the model was 1 grade. Conclusion: The results of model accuracy test show that the accuracy level of the model is one level, which is a good model to reflect the development trend of hepatitis B in Haining more accurately. The forecast shows that the incidence of hepatitis B in Haining is declining.