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目的比较Muller-Breitkreutz和发病率-窗口期两种数学模型用于评估丙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis C virus,HCV)及人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)残余风险的适用性。方法采用ELISA法对2014年1月~2014年12月本公司所属四川省内单采血浆公司562 275人份重复供血浆者血浆标本(来自48 105名重复供血浆者)进行抗-HCV及抗-HIV筛查,对筛查抗-HCV及抗-HIV阳性标本通过Western blot法进行确证。分别采用MullerBreitkreutz模型和发病率-窗口期模型评估供血浆者HCV及HIV残余风险。结果经ELISA法筛选及Western blot法确证,2014年1月~2014年12月四川地区562 275人份重复供血浆者血浆标本中,抗-HCV阳性1人,抗-HIV阳性1人。Muller-Breitkreutz模型计算的重复供血浆人群HCV及HIV残余风险分别为1∶119 332和1∶3 731 343;发病率-窗口期模型计算的重复供血浆人群HCV及HIV残余风险分别为1∶263 505和1∶790 514。结论两种模型用于血清学检测结果的评估差异较大,发病率-窗口期模型适用于重复供血浆者所占比例较大的情况。
Objective To compare the applicability of Muller-Breitkreutz and morbidity-window mathematic models to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Methods A total of 562 275 duplicate plasma donors (from 48 105 repeat plasma donors) in our hospital from January 2014 to December 2014 in our hospital were tested for anti-HCV and anti-HCV using ELISA -HIV screening, screening anti-HCV and anti-HIV positive specimens confirmed by Western blot. MullerBreitkreutz model and morbidity-window model were respectively used to evaluate the residual risk of HCV and HIV in plasma. Results The results of ELISA and Western blot confirmed that from January 2014 to December 2014, there were 562 275 repeated plasma donors in Sichuan province. Among them, one anti-HCV positive and one anti-HIV positive. The residual risk of HCV and HIV in the repeated plasma population calculated by the Muller-Breitkreutz model was 1:11 9 332 and 1: 3731 343, respectively. The residual risk of HCV and HIV in the repeated plasma population calculated by the incidence-window model was 1:263 505 and 1: 790 514. Conclusion The two models are used to evaluate the serological test results greatly. The morbidity-window period model is suitable for the case that the proportion of repeated plasma is large.