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在开放经济条件下,消费外溢现象出现的越来越频繁。对于消费者的居住国而言,过度的境外消费会削弱本国经济增长的动力。区别于以往研究,本文从税制结构视角探究消费外溢的形成机理,进而通过完善税收制度解决消费外溢问题。本文首先从理论上分析了税制结构与消费外溢的内在联系,然后利用2006—2013年的跨国数据,通过动态面板与空间面板的方法验证了税制结构对消费外溢所施加的影响。研究表明:税制结构是影响消费外溢的一个重要因素,相比于其他国家,间接税在一国总税收中的占比越高,越容易引发消费外溢,间接税占比每增长1%,境外消费比重增长0.8345%;相应地,其他国家提高间接税也会阻止本国居民的境外消费,减少消费外溢,在控制地理与经济关系因素下的计量结果显示,其他国家的间接税占比每增长1%,会使得本国居民的境外消费下降0.4592%。因此,改变间接税偏重的税制结构,有助于抑制消费外溢。以理论和实证研究为基础,本文结合中国现实,进一步讨论了通过调整税制结构减轻消费外溢发生的举措。税制结构调整的核心内容是:在宏观税负水平总体有所下降的前提下,适当提高直接税在全部税收中的比重,降低间接税比重。
Under the conditions of an open economy, the phenomena of spillover of consumption appear more and more frequently. For the country of residence of the consumer, excessive overseas consumption will weaken the momentum of its own economic growth. Different from previous studies, this paper explores the formation mechanism of consumer spillover from the perspective of tax structure, and then solves the problem of consumption spillover through improving tax system. This paper first analyzes the inherent relationship between tax structure and consumption spillover in theory, and then uses the cross-country data from 2006 to 2013 to verify the impact of tax structure on consumption spillover through dynamic panel and spatial panel. The research shows that the tax structure is an important factor that affects the spillover of consumption. Compared with other countries, the higher the proportion of indirect tax in the total tax revenue of a country, the more likely it is to lead to spillover of consumption. For every 1% increase in indirect tax, the proportion of overseas consumption An increase of 0.8345%. Correspondingly, raising the indirect tax in other countries will also prevent the overseas consumption of residents and reduce the spillover of consumption. The measurement under the control of geographical and economic factors shows that for every 1% increase in indirect taxes in other countries, Overseas domestic consumption fell 0.4592%. Therefore, changing the tax structure that has a heavy indirect tax burden will help curb consumption spillover. Based on the theoretical and empirical research, this article further discusses the measures to mitigate the spillover of consumption by adjusting the tax structure based on China’s reality. The core content of the structural adjustment of the tax system is: under the premise of an overall decline in macro-tax burden, appropriately increase the proportion of direct tax in all taxes and reduce the proportion of indirect taxes.