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统计预测是根据已掌握的资料，运用各种统计方法，对未来进行科学的估计和推算，是实行科学管理的重要工具之一。移动平均数法是用实际发生的资料求其平均值，在时间上往后推移，作为下月或下下月的预测，故移动平均数法应把季节因素考虑进去［１，２］。而趋势季节模型预测法
Statistical forecast is based on the available information, the use of various statistical methods, the future of scientific estimates and projections, the implementation of scientific management is one of the important tools. The moving average method uses the actual data to find the average and then moves backward in time as the forecast for the next or next next month. Therefore, the moving average method should take seasonal factors into consideration [1,2]. The trend season model prediction method