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作者在Miller两区域模型的基础上,运用投入产出分析技术分解了三区域模型的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应与反馈效应,进一步探讨了这三种效应间的内在关系。在此基础上,利用2007年中国区域间投入产出表,对京津冀三个区域的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应与反馈效应进行实证分析。计算结果表明,京津冀三地区内乘数效应均远大于溢出效应与反馈效应,即三个地区的产出增长主要是通过内部最终需求和出口的增加而引致的。计算结果说明了京津冀协同发展的必要性。
Based on the Miller model and the input-output analysis technique, the author decomposes the intraregional multiplier effect, inter-region spillover effect and feedback effect of the three-regional model and further explores the intrinsic relationship between these three effects. On this basis, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the intraregional multiplier effect, interregional spillover effect and feedback effect of the three regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Ji using the 2007 China Inter-country Input-Output Table. The calculation results show that the multiplier effects in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are far greater than the spillover and feedback effects, that is, the output growth in the three regions is mainly caused by the increase in internal final demand and exports. The calculation results show the necessity of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.