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继1991年国民经济的全面回升,今年一季度工业生产持续高速增长,同时,投资与消费增长的势头也是很猛。这似乎预示着一轮新的过热已经开始。经过测算和分析,我们认为,当前经济增长的方式有了很大转变,投资和出口是经济增长的主要动因,消费仍是平稳回升,在本年内不会出现生产物资的全面紧张和较大幅度的通货膨胀。经济过热时期首先表现出投资需求和消费需求的急剧上涨,进而导致生产物资的全而紧张和大规模的通货膨胀。今年一季度的生产,投资需求增长很快,并且诱发了整个工业的高速发展。因此,经济会否出现过热,关键要看消费需求的增长状况。
Following the overall rebound of the national economy in 1991, industrial production continued its rapid growth in the first quarter of this year. At the same time, the growth momentum in investment and consumption was also very strong. This seems to indicate that a new round of overheating has started. After calculation and analysis, we think that the current mode of economic growth has undergone a great transformation. Investment and exports are the main drivers of economic growth. Consumption still shows a steady rebound. During the year, there will be no overall shortage of goods and materials Inflation. The period of economic overheating was the first to show a sharp rise in investment demand and consumer demand, which in turn led to all-out tensions in production supplies and massive inflation. In the first quarter of this year, investment demand grew rapidly, and the rapid development of the entire industry was induced. Therefore, if the economy will overheat, the key depends on the growth of consumer demand.