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目的 预测洞庭湖区退田还湖试点退田还湖前后血吸虫病疫情的变化趋势 ,为血吸虫病防治策略的制定提供依据。 方法 应用时间序列中指数平滑法、移动平均法、自相关分析及自回归综合移动平均法 (ARIMA)对洞庭湖区退田还湖试点血吸虫病疫情建模、分析 ,并比较 4种方法的预测效果。 结果 集成垸试点和濠口试点ARIMA模型粪检阳性率误差平方和最小 ,分别为 10 0 .16和 2 2 .5 4。其ARIMA预测模型分别为 ^ yt=1.2 877Yt-1+ 0 .42 46Yt-2 -0 .712 3Yt-3 -0 .43 0 5et-1+ 0 .9981et-2 -0 .0 5 44和 ^yt=0 .64 87Yt-1+ 0 .3 5 13Yt-2 + 0 .8671et-1+ 0 .0 2 2 3 ;退田还湖后的患病率预测值高于退田还湖前。 结论 退田还湖后血吸虫病粪检阳性率预测值有升高的趋势 ,应加强当地的血吸虫病防治工作。
Objective To predict the change trend of schistosomiasis before and after returning farmland to lake to retreat from lake to lake in Dongting Lake to provide basis for the prevention and control strategy of schistosomiasis. Methods The time series of exponential smoothing, moving average, autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) were used to model and analyze the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in retreat land to lake in Dongting Lake area, and to compare the predictive effects of four methods . Results The results showed that the square error of the positive rate of fecal seizure in the integrated embankment pilot test and the Hohhot pilot ARIMA model was the smallest, which were 10 0 .16 and 2 2 .5 4, respectively. The ARIMA predictive models are ^ yt = 1.2 877Yt-1 + 0.42 46Yt-2 -0 .712 3Yt-3 -0.43 0et-1 + 0.9981et-2 -0.054 and ^ yt = 0 .64 87Yt-1 +0.3513Yt-2 +0.8671et-1 +0.0223; The predicted value after the retreat to the lake was higher than before the retreat to the lake. Conclusion The forecast of the positive rate of schistosomiasis after the return of farmland to lake has a tendency to increase, and the prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis should be strengthened.