论文部分内容阅读
水资源生态安全和粮食安全的共同实现是农业可持续发展所追求的目标,准确判断中国双重安全的程度对于调整水资源利用模式乃至转变农业发展方式具有重要的指导价值。本文在分析水资源生态安全和粮食安全内涵、特征和关系的基础上,构建了水资源生态安全和粮食安全评价指标体系,通过对1997年-2006年中国水资源生态安全和粮食安全PSR(压力、状态及响应指标体系)的动态变化分析,发现中国粮食安全呈现稳定上升趋势,水资源生态安全呈下降趋势。粮食安全状态(S)指标与响应(R)指标之间存在高度耦合性,在压力(P)不减的情况下,粮食安全水平保持较强的增长势头。水资源生态安全中压力(P)与状态(S)指标存在耦合性,响应(R)指标呈现大幅增长,但干预效果不显著,需进一步加大资金投入力度并改变调适政策。
The realization of the ecological security of water resources and food security is the goal pursued by the sustainable development of agriculture. Accurately judging the extent of China’s dual security has important guiding value for adjusting the pattern of water resources utilization and even changing the mode of agricultural development. Based on the analysis of the connotation, characteristics and relations of water resources ecological security and food security, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of water resources ecological security and food security. Through the study on the ecological security of water resources and food security in China from 1997 to 2006, , Status and response index system), we find that food security in China shows a steady upward trend and the ecological security of water resources shows a downward trend. There is a high degree of coupling between the state of food security (S) and the response (R), and the level of food security maintains a strong growth in the absence of pressure (P). In the ecological security of water resources, pressure (P) and status (S) indicators are coupled, and the response (R) index shows a substantial increase, but the intervention effect is insignificant, further efforts should be made to increase capital investment and change adaptation policies.