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本文基于中国30多年来的数据实证分析中国消费者的行为,表明中国消费者确实存在着跨期消费行为,即证明了中国银行业对个人的跨期消费具有一定的帮助,体现了银行业对个人的福利效应。进一步,本文研究了银行业对个人福利的影响情况,即实证分析国内生产总值、消费指数、存款利率对个人福利的影响。结果显示:银行利率水平对个人福利具有实际的影响,二者具有协整关系和格兰杰因果关系,而且利率水平对个人福利高低总体呈反向关系。自改革开放以来,中国银行业的存款利率总体上呈降低趋势,相应地个人福利效应也在增加。
This essay empirically analyzes the behavior of Chinese consumers based on the data of China over the past 30 years and shows that there is indeed an intertemporal consumer behavior among Chinese consumers. This proves that the Chinese banking industry is somewhat helpful to individuals in their intertemporal consumption and reflects the banking industry’s Personal welfare effects. Further, this paper studies the impact of the banking industry on individual welfare, that is, empirical analysis of the impact of GDP, consumer index, deposit interest rates on individual welfare. The results show that the bank interest rate has a practical impact on individual welfare. Both of them have cointegration relationship and Granger causality, and the interest rate level has an overall inverse relationship with individual welfare. Since the reform and opening up, the interest rate on deposits in China’s banking industry has generally been on the decline. Correspondingly, the personal welfare effect is also on the rise.