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本文在分析经济增长、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源利用效率与煤炭消费关系的基础上,构建了面板数据模型,对它们之间的关系进行了实证分析,并对东、中、西部地区进行了比较分析。实证结果表明:变量间存在长期协整关系,而且各地区间存在一定差异,中部地区经济增长对煤炭消费的影响高于其它地区,东部地区产业结构、能源消费结构、单位GRP能耗水平等因素对煤炭消费的影响大于其它地区;从短期波动看,东部地区各因素波动对煤炭消费量波动的影响要高于其它地区,不过产业结构波动对煤炭消费波动的影响西部要高于东部地区,从偏离长期均衡的调整力度看,中部地区要高于东部和西部地区。因此,国家和各地区在制定经济政策和煤炭政策时,必须正视这一差异,把握煤炭需求与经济增长、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源利用效率的具体关系,促进能源与经济的良性发展。
Based on the analysis of the relationship between economic growth, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, energy efficiency and coal consumption, this paper constructs a panel data model, and makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between them, and carries out the analysis of the eastern, central and western regions A comparative analysis. The empirical results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between variables, and there are some differences among regions. The influence of economic growth in central China on coal consumption is higher than that in other regions. The industrial structure, energy consumption structure, energy consumption per unit of GRP in the eastern region and other factors From the perspective of short-term fluctuations, fluctuations of various factors in the eastern region have a greater impact on the fluctuation of coal consumption than other regions, but the impact of industrial structure fluctuations on coal consumption fluctuations in the west is higher than that in the eastern region, In the long-term balanced adjustment, the central region is higher than the eastern and western regions. Therefore, when formulating economic policies and coal policies, the countries and regions must face up to this discrepancy and grasp the concrete relationship between coal demand and economic growth, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency so as to promote the sound development of energy and economy.