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定量描述气候变化影响下水稻种植分布变化可为优化水稻生产布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供依据.基于最大熵方法建立的双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型,本文研究了1961～2010年我国双季稻种植分布变化.结果表明:我国双季稻种植分布及其气候适宜性存在年代际变化.低适宜等级以上总适宜区面积,在20世纪60年代最高,70年代到21世纪前10年呈先增后减的特点;低适宜区面积呈减少趋势,反映双季稻主产区的中、高适宜区面积之和呈增加趋势;高气候适宜区面积在21世纪前10年增加较多,是20世纪90年代的4.4倍,是60年代的4倍.我国双季稻种植分布受年代际气候变化影响较大的地区主要位于江苏、安徽中部、四川盆地东部、河南南部及贵州中部;在浙江北部、安徽、湖北南部、广西北部地区,存在双季稻低、中气候适宜等级之间的转换;在江西中部、雷州半岛,存在双季稻中、高气候适宜等级之间的转换.20世纪70年代双季稻种植北界南移东退,80年代双季稻种植界限北移,21世纪前10年气温明显升高并没有使双季稻种植界限北移.
Quantitative description of the change of rice planting distribution under the influence of climate change can provide the basis for optimizing the rice production layout and formulating the policy of coping with climate change.Based on the model of the relationship between crop distribution and climate of double cropping rice established by maximum entropy method, The results showed that there was an interdecadal change in the distribution and climate suitability of double cropping rice in China, and the total suitable area above low grade was the highest in the 1960s, the highest in the 1970s and the first 10 years in the 21st century The area of low suitable area showed a decreasing trend, which showed that the sum of middle and high suitable area of double cropping rice main producing area showed an increasing trend; the area of suitable high area increased more in the first 10 years of 21st century 4.4 times that of the 1990s and four times that of the 1960s.The areas where the distribution of double cropping rice in our country is greatly affected by interdecadal climate change are mainly located in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, eastern Sichuan Basin, southern Henan and central Guizhou. In northern Zhejiang, Anhui, southern Hubei and northern Guangxi, there is a transition between low and moderate climatic levels of double cropping rice; in central Jiangxi and Leizhou Peninsula, there are double In the 1970s, the northern boundary of the double cropping rice planted in the south moved eastward and the boundary of double cropping rice in the 1980s moved northward. However, in the first ten years of the 21st century, the temperature rose markedly without making Double cropping rice planting boundary moved north.